Variant Perception was founded by a team of market professionals with decades of combined experience within asset management, proprietary trading and the qualitative/ quantitative modeling disciplines.
Our macroeconomic commentaries provide a high level of value to any firm or individual that is interested in using independent research to aid decision making, formulate trading strategies or manage assets.
What distinguishes Variant Perception from other research providers?
> We use leading indicators to give us leading insights, allowing us to have an advanced read on the business cycle and recessions in real time.
Economists are terrible at predicting recessions - 9 out of 10 economists missed the last four recessions. Economists miss recessions because they focus on lagging indicators, rather than the leading indicators we reference.
> We are independent, highly data-driven and agnostic. We are not wedded to any point of view and follow our leading indicators even if the consensus disagrees.
Economists also miss recessions because of the vintage data problem; they reference heavily revised data. Our data-driven and forward-looking analysis removes any reliance on data that will later be revised, and our independence allows us to always take the agnostic viewpoint.
> We only write about outliers and good trade ideas; the blow ups and potential success stories.
Wall Street research is produced by rote and is too copious. An economist for France will write about France regardless of the importance or relevance of the content.
> Our style is crisp and short with powerful charts. We respect our client’s time and believe the data tells the most powerful story.
We are not fans of convoluted research, and we wish anyone luck in finding what is important in an 85+ page report, or knowing which of twenty daily emails is important! We keep our reports succinct and let the data tell the story.
We are not bulls or bears, nor are we inflationists or deflationists. We realize the world is more complex and often cannot be simplified into two polar points of view. Instead, we are data-driven. We concentrate on forward-looking data that enables us to forecast where the economy is headed. Many economists fixate on coincident or even lagging data that can only tell us where the economy is or where it has been. This is like driving by looking in the rear-view mirror or out of the side window, rather than forwards through the windscreen.
By focusing on leading data that has an empirically proven record in anticipating turns in the business cycle and thus the price movements of assets, we are able to help drive our clients' investment decisions, and maximize their profitability.
There are a few things that we know do not change:
> Yield Curve - The yield curve is by far the best predictor of economic growth in most economies of the world.
> Volatility - Volatility follows the credit cycle. High credit growth precedes defaults and higher volatility.
> Policy Effects - Monetary and fiscal policies have lagged effects on economic growth and inflation.
> Credit and Bubbles - Negative real interest rates precede excess credit creation and bubbles.
Additionally, we draw on hundreds of economic charts and data-sets, as well as valuable proprietary indices and market-timing models, to inform and justify our analysis.