Use a radar.
Not a crystal ball.

How do you act with conviction when nothing is guaranteed? The key is building a repeatable process based on enduring economic and market principles—a radar to help you adapt to change.

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How We Think

Quantitative discipline rooted in timeless economic principles.

At Variant Perception, we search for first principles answers to fundamental investing questions. We draw from diverse sources, from historians, to famous investors, to disease contagion models, and we avoid overfitted black boxes.

We embrace an interdisciplinary approach to see the bigger picture, whether it's spotting macro turning points, tracking the capital cycle, or contextualizing short-term price moves.

A repeatable variant perception requires both quantitative discipline and human intuition.

The Foundations of Variant Perception

Learn more about our approach

What is a variant perception?

Having a variant perception means developing a unique view while understanding what the rest of the market is expecting. It allows you to act with conviction when you hold a strong view that diverges from the crowd.

We find differentiated views by seeing connections overlooked by others across cycles, fundamentals, and behavioral biases.

“I defined variant perception as holding a well-founded view that was meaningfully different from market consensus.”

Michael Steinhardt

First Principles Thinking

At Variant Perception, first-principles thinking means understanding the chain of causality that drives investing outcomes.

How should money flow in a capitalist, competitive system? What causes business cycles? How are fear and greed contagious?

Macro

Leading indicators that anticipate turning points.

Fundamentals

Capital cycle and quality to understand individual businesses and sectors.

Behavioral

Tactical signals that anchor decisions

Why Macro + Fundamental + Quant?

Investing has become ever more multi-faceted. The business cycle drives investing outcomes, yet investors are often blindsided by macro turning points. A great business today may falter tomorrow if the competitive landscape shifts. In a world of human emotions, short term fear and greed can overwhelm discipline.

Each dimension drives markets in tandem, offering opportunities for those who connect the dots across all three.

Leading indicators to find macro turning points.

Capital cycle and quality to evaluate fundamentals.

Tactical signals to anchor decisions in volatile times.

What We Deliver

Actionable Insight

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Research & Charts

We produce forward-looking, actionable reports that interpret and contextualize our quantitative models. Clients also have access to live, updating chart collections — the same data our analysts use for idea generation.