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Revisions in Expected Interest Rate Paths

June 18th, 2013
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There’s been a lot of discussion of upward movements in long term interest rates. I thought it useful to consider the revisions in expectations, over time, and in context.

Is the high level of uncertainty in the euro area finally receding?

June 18th, 2013
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Even though there seem to be fewer acute risks for the euro area, with risk premiums for the crisis countries having fallen, the currency union remains mired in recession. This is probably also due to the very high level of political and economic uncertainty. At least in that respect, things seem to be looking up.

Is Dialogue Possible?

June 18th, 2013
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Photo Credit: Annaliese McDonough/Commonwealth Sectratariat

Lawler: Updated Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities in May

June 18th, 2013
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Economist Tom Lawler sent me the updated table below of short sales, foreclosures and cash buyers for several selected cities in May.  Look at the two columns in the table for Total "Distressed" Share. In almost every area that has reported distressed sales so far, the share of distressed sales is down year-over-year - and down significantly in many areas. 

More Troublesome Sentiment Indicators

June 18th, 2013
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"The wide array of optimistic extremes in sentiment measures includes several readings that exceed the extremes of 2007, when the Dow made its previous high. With a finishing structure that Elliott Wave Principle describes as occurring at 'the termination points of larger patterns,' the market is ripe for a decline of historic magnitude."

There’s trouble in River City, and it’s spelled D-A-M

June 18th, 2013
in
There is a village in Afghanistan by the name of Kobakai, a few winding hours from Kabul, where the lives of the residents changed because of one thing: water.

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